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Gardner leads challengers - CQ Politics

Sunday, October 25, 2009
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 25, 2009 - 9:50 a.m.
CQ Politics Ratings Update: The West
By CQ-Roll Call Staff

CQ Politics this year published its ratings on the upcoming congressional elections at a much earlier point in the election cycle than ever before. As we near the one-year point before Election Day in November 2010, we decided to take our ratings in for a tune-up, and there were several that needed adjusting.

Today’s roundup features races in the West, where the headline developments are the shifts of two contests - in Colorado’s 4th District and New Mexico’s 2nd District - into the Tossup category from Leans Democratic.

Harry Teague in the New Mexico contest and Betsy Markey in the Colorado race are House freshmen who overcame tough odds and longstanding Republican traditions in their districts to win takeover contests in 2008. But the Republicans are coming back at them hard and have scored a couple of their biggest recruiting successes this cycle, with Teague facing a challenge from Republican predecessor Steve Pearce and Markey facing a likely race with Cory Gardner, a member of the state House GOP leadership.

The West roundup follows the Oct. 23 publication of ratings changes in the South and Saturday’s ratings update for the Midwest. A roundup on Northeast ratings change, to be published Monday, will complete the series.

The race summaries were written by CQ-Roll Call politics reporters Emily Cadei, Greg Giroux and Shira Toeplitz and were edited by chief elections analyst Bob Benenson.

Colorado’s 4th District (North and east - Fort Collins; Greeley)
Incumbent: Betsy Markey, D
Now: Tossup
Was: Leans Democratic

Markey, a businesswoman and former Senate aide to Colorado Democrat Ken Salazar, scored an impressive victory over three-term conservative incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2008. But the outcome ran counter to the usually Republican leanings of voters in her sprawling district.

Voters in the 4th, while electing Markey, narrowly favored Republican John McCain over Obama for president in 2008. As recently as 2004, President Bush powered up to a 17-point margin as the Republican nominee.
With Republican strategists placing this race high on their 2010 target list, and a solid and experienced front-runner in the field for their nomination, Markey’s hopes for a second term appear up for grabs.

The field of Republican opponents, which started taking form early, is headed by Gardner, the minority whip of the Colorado House. With $395,000 raised and $273,000 in cash on hand as of the end of September, Gardner is one of the better-funded House challengers in the nation.

Tom Lucero, an elected member of the University of Colorado’s Board of Regents, also is seeking the Republican nomination but has raised little money.

But Markey looks prepared for the fight. She raised $951,000 in the first nine months of this year, one of the highest totals for a first-term member. She also broke with House Democratic leaders in April by voting against the party-backed budget plan for the next fiscal year. Written by Greg Giroux